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**The Store Is Now a Warehouse With a Parking Lot**

2h ago · 7 sources · trend

Grocery has officially gone full omnichannel. About 94% of consumers now shop across online and in-store, and together those trips account for total grocery spending and units. The real kicker, online is where the growth lives.

From 2026 to 2028, online grocery is projected to grow at an 11.6% CAGR. In-store? Just 0.6%. Online’s share of total grocery spending is expected to jump from 18% in 2024 to 25.5% by 2028, reaching roughly $452 billion. Last year alone, e-commerce grocery drove three-quarters of total grocery dollar growth.

Most of that volume, about 80%, comes from shipped and delivered orders. Retailers like Walmart are responding by turning stores into mini warehouses and fulfillment centers to move faster and cut costs. Meanwhile, more than 38% of food retailers and 71% of brands are actively using retail media networks as part of their e-commerce strategy.

Here’s the twist. Shoppers are splitting spend across channels and retailers, which fragments loyalty. If a product is out of stock in one place, they just buy it somewhere else. That raises the stakes for brands. Online performance now matters as much as velocity or incrementality.

Why it matters: distribution is no longer just shelf space. It is search ranking, delivery speed, and in-stock rates across every digital touchpoint. The brands that treat online like a side hustle will feel it in share.

Key facts

  • Approximately 94% of consumers shop across online and in-store channels which make up total grocery spending, trips and units.
  • From 2026 to 2028, online grocery is estimated to grow at an 11.6% compound annual growth rate compared with 0.6% for in-store sales.
  • Online’s share of total grocery spending is projected to rise from 18% in 2024 to 25.5% by 2028, reaching roughly $452 billion in sales.
  • Last year, e-commerce grocery made up roughly three-quarters of total grocery dollar growth.
  • The majority of online grocery fulfillment comes from shipped and delivered orders, making up about 80% of e-commerce volume.
  • More than a third of food retailers and 71% of brands actively use retail media networks as part of their ecommerce and digital strategies.
  • Shoppers are increasingly splitting their grocery spending across channels and retailers, creating fragmented loyalty in an omnichannel marketplace.
  • When a product goes out of stock in one place, consumers simply find it somewhere else, increasing the risk of lost share for brands and retailers.
  • Retailers like Walmart are turning stores into mini warehouses and fulfillment centers to deliver products faster and at lower cost.
  • Online performance now plays as important a role in a business strategy as velocity or incrementality, reflecting the reliance on pickup and delivery as essential parts of the sales mix.
  • 94%
  • 11.6% CAGR
  • 0.6%
  • 18%
  • 25.5%
  • $452 billion
  • three-quarters
  • 80%

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